Democracy, Elections and Nigeria: Problems and Way Forward (1)

Democracy, Elections and Nigeria: Problems and Way Forward (1)

You have given me the power to make and unmake. 

Go to sleep, I will decide on your behalf. 

The 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (now amended), states that “the Federal Republic of Nigeria shall be a State based on the principles of democracy and social justice... It … declared that: (a) sovereignty belongs to the people of Nigeria from whom government through this Constitution derives all its powers and authority; (b) the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government: and (c) the participation by the people in their government shall be ensured in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution” [1]. Building on this knowledge, can citizens confidently say that their intentions would naturally shape their leadership in Nigeria? Has Nigeria been experiencing true democracy only on paper? Has our form of democracy been diluted to emasculate citizens? Has Nigeria's democracy been watered down to reinforce excesses of supposed gods that have refused to leave the corridors of power? Do Nigerians appreciate the critical role of citizens in Nigeria? Have they even come to terms with the fact that democracy is a sharp departure from military regimes which have plagued Nigeria in the past?

Democracy, democracy, democracy. What is democracy? Unpacking this term is critical because it’s important to understand if Nigeria has experienced true democracy since this constitution. Surprisingly, people champion democracy without appreciating the huge benefits that come with it and the corresponding costs. Can Nigeria be considered a democratic State in its real sense? I would argue not yet. Even if it is, what can Nigeria do more to reaffirm its democratic status? If it is not, what must it do to become more democratic? In a truly democratic state, citizens steer their affairs and influence the persons to lead their government. 

If you try to peer through, I will shut the blinds. 

These windows you see lead nowhere. 

You think you are smart, I am wiser.

Austrian Economist, Schumpeter defined democracy as a recognised political process in which persons obtain the power to govern others through votes [2]. How elections are managed is a critical determinant of whether Nigeria is a democratic State is. Elections are important in any democracy (especially a budding democracy). If the electoral process is inclusive and fair, Nigeria will be termed democratic. If it is not, the reverse is the case. Nigeria’s democracy cannot be viewed outside of the political environment that dictates how Nigerian leaders emerge. It is as such not a surprise that promoters of ‘procedural definitions’ of democracy single out elections as an indispensable fabric of true democracy [3]. According to this school of thought, democracies should not accommodate “shams” that twist outcomes to crush oppositions. If Nigeria gets elections wrong, it would be inaccurate to define it as a democratic state. 

Supervisory systems and their corresponding competencies, legal frameworks, checks and balances have implications on democracies. Bringing this home to Nigeria, understanding roles becomes imperative when looking at the demarcation and independence of critical government systems, processes and bodies that foster democracy. Distinctions are often blurred; rumours and misinformation influence public perception; transparency measures are not standard but context dependent; accountability systems have become relative; truth is ever changing; power makes everything possible; and more recently body language, all stretching democratic ideologies. 

Take this piece meal and do not challenge me. 

I reign supreme, long live the status quo! 

Based on discussions thus far, elections are indispensable in Nigeria’s democracy. The body saddled with the responsibility of ensuring that the electoral process works as it should in the interest of Nigerians are the electoral commissions at the national and state level. This piece focuses on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) which was established in 1999. INEC true to its mandate of voter and civic education provides information on Nigeria’s electoral process on its website, via social media platforms, and public forums amongst others (see the complete mandate of INEC at www.inecnigeria.org). At the national level besides INEC, other stakeholders (both private and corporate) are also contributing to strengthening the electoral process. INEC currently has over 915,000 followers on twitter, 296,000 followers on facebook and 39,000 on Instagram. In early May, INEC targeted the University of Abuja to promote engagement of the electoral process by more Nigerians. And hopefully, their efforts will snowball into other campuses. Sadly, while these actions are commendable, more needs to be done. In my opinion, Nigerians are yet to fully trust that the electoral and democratic system which produces new leaders will meet their needs. Challenges in the electoral system include: theft and other security crisis, result manipulation, insufficient knowledge of the electoral process, poor voters turn out, low voter registration, underage voting, unintended disenfranchisement, poor feedback mechanisms, less than optimal electoral database systems and lack of general transparency. Subsequent sections will focus on these challenges to Nigeria’s democracy and possible solutions. 

I am increasingly restless and desperate,

to mortgage everything and everyone,

and retain what is no longer mine.

Theft and thuggery (including snatching of polling boxes) have become widespread and entrenched in Nigeria’s elections. In some cases, this pandemic lead to fights and deaths; further making engagement by electorates difficult. I may argue that increased violence correlates with low voter participation. Unsurprisingly, in the past, security challenges had been met with increased security presence. However, arguments have been that these personnel are only there to do the bidding of their bosses. Political leaders in places currently being led by ‘opposition parties’ will argue that processes are skewed negatively. Fortunately, this is not something that cannot be fixed. Security deployed during these periods should have more training on how best to handle crisis. Logistical equipment and tools can be better managed/monitored. For example, vehicles used for the movement of sensitive materials can be tracked to ensure that when incidences occur, the appropriate authorities get just-in-time information and are able to take prompt actions. Mitigating opportunities for violence is also key. Efforts need to be made to ensure that the voting process excludes redundant stages that increase chances of boxes staying in a polling unit for too long. The accreditation process followed by the actual voting for instance make electorates spend hours at the polling units to repeatedly form queues. Both stages can be integrated as one. Electronic voting can complement efforts here. 

Like a rich man struggling to get out of a stampede,

I will happily sacrifice everyone on my path.

Some may argue that the mechanisms for rigging elections have evolved. They say INEC officials can influence the outcome of votes once certain conditions are met. If the number of registered voters exceed the actual voters that turned up to vote, the difference can be manipulated and creatively added to a preferred candidate. Similarly, if the number of registered voters is less than the number of persons who voted, elections in the polling units may be cancelled. The occurrence of the latter condition is a sign post that votes have been rigged.

Without downplaying digital divides, it is not news that electronic voting (e-voting) can handle these hiccups since there will be less likelihood that votes will be tampered at polling units and collation points. The perception of any alteration would also be a thing of the past. Electronic voting in the United States sped rapidly after the 2000 elections [4]. Sadly, getting e-voting to work in Nigeria appears to be a herculean task. Stakeholders in Nigeria seem to have given up on the potential roll-out of e-voting for the 2019 general elections. And this may be due to 'limited infrastructure' needed to make it a success. Fortunately, there is not one linear process for successful roll-out of e-voting. As was done in advanced countries, pilot cases at the local level may be the simplest pathway. The Kaduna State Government rolled out e-voting for its May 2018 Local Government elections. Lessons from the elections can inform plans to expand e-voting across Nigeria. Below are several options which INEC may consider when incorporating e-voting. Undoubtedly, all require collaborations/ partnerships with non-partisan stakeholders (for example, telephone/internet service providers, software development firms, well-meaning development organisations etc.). According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), as at February 2018 mobile phone teledensity in Nigeria was 106%, and internet subscriptions was about 101 million [5]. The options below are specific considerations for Nigeria on e-voting:

• A: This option mandates that INEC’s database system is improved to accommodate rapid information transfer to and from their data warehouses (servers). The storage and processing capacity of their servers are significantly improved. Stable internet and electricity supply are ensured across the country especially during the election days to ensure that votes are captured and collated centrally/regionally real-time. All equipment/systems to be used pre, during and post elections will be quality checked several times, to reduce the likelihood of use of faulty equipment. Permanent voter cards will be the only means of ascertaining eligibility to vote. Partnerships with internet service providers may be needed to successfully implement this option. 
• B: This option mandates that INEC’s database system is improved to accommodate rapid information transfer to and from the data warehouse (servers). The storage and processing capacity of their servers are significantly improved. The existing asset base of INEC (its laptops and biometric systems) are leveraged. Pockets of standalone elections softwares are developed and installed on the computers. Wherein, the softwares prior to an election should contain all electorate data in respective polling units. And whenever internet becomes available, the encrypted elections data can then be looped back to the central/regional servers. A seamless implementation of option two will require partnerships with non-partisan software development companies. 
• C: This option builds on the infrastructure of service providers such as Glo, 9mobile, Airtel, MTN etc. Unlike the other options that preconditions that electorates should be at polling units before their votes can be captured, this option allows electorates to participate in influencing the governance process from the comfort of their homes, other locations or outside Nigeria. The information technology that is leveraged enables remote voting no matter where voters are during the elections (#VoteFromAnywhere). It supports #DiasporaVoting. TV shows (e.g. the bbnaija, MTN project fame etc.), radio programmes amongst others, already promote that mobile devices are used for voting in specific programmes. Lessons from them should be leveraged. Seamless implementation of this option will also require full synchronisation of databases prior to elections to enforce one vote per eligible person. As at 2016, most Nigerians had access to phones, with a penetration rate of 83 percent [6]. 

Walking through pleasant paths takes you several miles backwards.

Strolling through thorny trails hurls you several miles forward.

The preferred choice is not straightforward. There are secrecy, privacy and security issues that need to be addressed in advance. The extent of penetration of an infrastructure would also influence choice and use. As such, there may be combinations of more than one option at the end of the day. 

It is your duty to remember everything each day,

But my duty is to forget those that hurt me.

Continued in follow-up post

Get involved in #NigeriaElectoralProcess. #NigeriaWakeUp.

By Sylvanus Nabena and Oghenevwiere Irikefe

Twitter: @slynabena

Notes:

[1] Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Part 1: Chapter 2. p.7. Available at: http://www.wipo.int/edocs/lexdocs/laws/en/ng/ng014en.pdf [Accessed 29 Apr. 2018]. 

[2] Schumpeter, J. A. (2010). Capitalism, socialism and democracy. Routledge, pp. 9 

[3] Tilly, C. (2008). Democracy. Cambridge [etc.]: Cambridge University Press, pp.7-10. 

[4] Herrnson P.S., Niemi R.G., Hanmer M.J., Bederson B.B., Conrad F.G., Traugott M.W. (2008) The Current State of Electronic Voting in the United States. In: Chen H. et al. (eds) Digital Government. Integrated Series in Information Systems, vol 17. Springer, Boston, MA

[5] Nigerian Communications Commission (2018). Industry Statistics. [online] Ncc.gov.ng. Available at: https://www.ncc.gov.ng/stakeholder/statistics-reports/industry-overview#view-graphs-tables [Accessed 1 May 2018]. 

[6] The International Telecommunications Union. (2016). Statistics. [online] Available at: https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/statistics/2018/Mobile_cellular_2000-2016.xls [Accessed 1 May 2018].